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PERSPECTIVE
Year : 2020  |  Volume : 9  |  Issue : 5  |  Page : 68-72

Assessing the effect of lockdown on COVID-19 pandemic through risk prediction model in major cities of India


1 Department of Community Medicine, Government Thiruvarur Medical College and Hospital, Thiruvarur, Tamil Nadu, India
2 Department of Community Medicine, SRM Medical College Hospital and Research Centre, Kattankulatur, Tamil Nadu, India

Correspondence Address:
Dr. Balaji Ramraj
Department of Community Medicine, SRM Medical College Hospital and Research Centre, Kattankulatur - 603 203, Tamil Nadu
India
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/ijhas.IJHAS_103_20

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The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic on March 11. Models can be established for this process to analyze and study the transmission process of infectious diseases theoretically. This paper presents the prediction of the number of positive COVID-19 cases for different lockdown scenario being implemented in some of the major cities in India. The predictions and assessments were based on a newly developed mathematical model that divides the population into four classes, i.e., susceptible, exposed, infected, and removed. According to the model, total lockdown can produce an effect in the reduction of number of corona cases in the major cities. However, similar difference may not be noted for the entire country as per the prediction.


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